Lebanon’s New President Strikes a Nationalistic Tone

Lebanon’s new president strikes a nationalistic tone amid regional shifts, further weakening of Hezbollah. Lebanon’s political landscape has undergone a significant transformation with the election of Joseph Aoun as president. After more than two years of political deadlock, the Lebanese Parliament elected the army commander on Thursday, with 99 out of 128 votes. Aoun’s election signals a major victory for the anti-Hezbollah camp and reflects the weakening influence of the powerful Shia terrorist organization within Lebanon’s political system.

Despite this milestone, experts caution that Hezbollah remains a formidable force, and Aoun faces immense challenges in balancing Lebanon’s internal politics and foreign relations.

The Shift in Lebanon’s Political Landscape

Lebanon's New President
Lebanon’s New President Strikes a Nationalistic Tone

Hezbollah’s Waning Influence by Lebanon’s New President

For much of the past two years, Hezbollah worked tirelessly to block progress toward electing a new president, strongly opposing Aoun’s candidacy. However, shifting regional dynamics, including the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria, forced Hezbollah to accept Aoun as a compromise candidate.

“Hezbollah had been opposed to his election for the last two and a half years and had blocked any process toward electing a president,” said Paul Salem, Vice President for International Engagement at the Middle East Institute. “Now, they’ve voted for him in the second round, which indicates they are in a bind. They are weaker, and their leverage is not what it was.”

Salem points to the broader shifts in regional politics, particularly the Sunni takeover of Damascus following the Assad regime’s collapse. This historic change has left Hezbollah increasingly isolated, cutting it off from both Iran and other Shiite allies. “Hezbollah’s future is worse than its present,” Salem added.

Joseph Aoun’s Vision for Lebanon

Hezbollah’s Waning Influence by Lebanon’s New President

A Message of Sovereignty by Lebanon’s New President

Joseph Aoun, a Maronite Christian and former commander of the Lebanese army, assumed the presidency with a strong nationalistic tone. In his inaugural speech, Aoun emphasized the importance of Lebanon’s sovereignty and the state’s monopoly on the use of force.

“He talked about disarming all groups and ensuring that weapons are under the control of the state,” said David Schenker, former head of the Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs at the U.S. State Department. “This was a positive and pragmatic step for Lebanon, showing a commitment to sovereignty and the rule of law.”

However, Schenker noted that the Lebanese president’s powers are limited in the country’s political system. “The president is not the most powerful position in Lebanon. The key position will be the prime minister. It remains to be seen whether Aoun will show the same courage in his new role that he demonstrated as chief of staff,” he added.

Challenges in Weakening Hezbollah’s Grip after Lebanon’s New President

While Hezbollah’s military strength has been diminished by Israeli campaigns and the assassination of key leaders, it still holds significant influence, particularly in southern Lebanon. However, its ability to intimidate Lebanon’s population has waned.

“Hezbollah isn’t the force it was,” Schenker explained. “It can still reactivate its killing machine if needed, but it no longer dominates the way it did before.” He added that Hezbollah is now focused on survival, both politically and financially.

According to Salem, Hezbollah’s acceptance of Aoun is a strategic move aimed at securing international aid for millions of displaced people in southern Lebanon. “They need a functioning government to ensure aid and protect their people,” Salem said.

Lebanon’s Path to International Alignment of Lebanon’s New President Policies

Lebanon’s Path to International Alignment of Lebanon's New President Policies
Lebanon’s Path to International Alignment of Lebanon’s New President Policies

Strengthening U.S. and Regional Ties

Aoun’s election could signal a shift in Lebanon’s alignment with the U.S. and regional powers such as Saudi Arabia. Lebanon’s economy has been in freefall, with its currency losing over 99% of its value and nearly 80% of the population living below the poverty line.

“The U.S. military has long maintained close ties with the Lebanese army,” Salem noted. Aoun’s background as army commander makes him a familiar figure in Washington, potentially paving the way for stronger cooperation with the U.S. and its allies.

Schenker added that Aoun’s commitment to U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701, which calls for disarmament in southern Lebanon, could lead to a more cooperative stance toward Israel. “Israel will be invested in Lebanon’s implementation of 1701,” Schenker said. “Aoun’s stance will influence Israel’s position toward Lebanon and help stabilize the region.”

A Fragile Road Ahead

Lebanon’s Path to International Alignment of Lebanon's New President Policies
Lebanon’s Path to International Alignment of Lebanon’s New President Policies

Economic Recovery and Political Stability After Lebanon’s New President Policies

Lebanon’s economic collapse remains a pressing issue. For Aoun, addressing this crisis while navigating the complexities of Lebanon’s sectarian political system will be an immense challenge. Experts emphasize the importance of forming a functional government capable of securing international aid and restoring public trust.

The international community, including the U.S. and Gulf countries, has expressed cautious optimism about Aoun’s presidency. However, sustained support will depend on tangible progress in disarming militias and implementing economic reforms.

Conclusion: Hope Amid Uncertainty

The election of Joseph Aoun marks a pivotal moment in Lebanon’s history. While his presidency represents a weakening of Hezbollah’s dominance, the road ahead is fraught with challenges. From economic recovery to maintaining sovereignty and disarming militias, Aoun’s leadership will be tested at every turn.

As Lebanon takes its first steps toward rebuilding, the hope is that Aoun’s commitment to sovereignty and reform will help steer the nation toward stability and prosperity, paving the way for a brighter future.

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